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Residents of the Big Apple will discover who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who runs and defends the country's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to send military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democrats against each other. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has run on a agenda of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has led his rival by double-digits across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby end to an race that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to Americans' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to adopt at least some of the candidate's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an excitement within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

However, should Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement national Democrats' current model of considered, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A New York defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has drawn an army of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on attacking the candidate directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that is expected. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in last year, few had heard of him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the race in March 2025 and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has faced difficulties in recent days, after video surfaced suggesting him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a DSA convention in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd