A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
