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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It often serves as a form of apology. We regret we misjudged your squad in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the biggest improvement receives the prize. In practice, it fuels an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or just the biggest upset.

But the latest field is profoundly unique. The pool of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions declining and recent also-rans ascending collectively. Under an ordinary season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in this wild and entertaining season, he's competing with several other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the projected vote should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent performance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to spin big plays from broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the level of expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this is not a normal season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the intangibles stuff, which was not a given after his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him just one place ahead of peers.

Still